Wednesday, October 29, 2008

The Red Will Be Yellow & Yellow'll Be Blue and the Blues are still Blue!



First, I invite you to look my 2004 blog Metastrophe (which I just exhumed from a pre-Google-Account Blogspot account), and consider how completely dated the "Jesusland" map looks in comparison to what we're seeing today. (I also had a 2nd blog back in 2004, but it was less a blog and more a counter-argument.)

Mississippi and South Dakota are now only WEAK Republican states on Pollster.com. I don't know if this re-coloring happened today or yesterday, but it speaks to the trend of what could be an Obama tsunami (an Obami?). Also speaking to this trend are the analyses pegging GA, NC, MO, IN, ND, and MT as toss-ups (these haven't changed since I last checked on Monday).

FiveThirtyEight.com has Obama's chances of winning at 96.2% (it's remained steady the past few days), his chances of an electoral landslide (375+) remains high at 41%, and thanks to the Stevens' verdict, the Alaska race has been handed to Begich (his odds of winning now has a 87%). Still, this doesn't alter the odds of our hitting the magic number 60 in the Senate, which remains a 1-in-3 shot (not shabby, actually). If you feel inspired to increase those odds, perhaps you want to make a donation to some Senate campaigns?

Do I even need to point out that all the traditional "blue" states remain deeply blue, including PA and NH? Add to that Iowa and Virginia has veritably sapphire. In the spirit of Belle & Sebastian, then, I am inclined to croon:


I left my red states at the launderette.
You can put some money on it, you can place a little bet
That when I see my red states,
The red will be yellow, the yellow'll be blue,
And the blues are still blue!

{ alternative, even more optimistic version:

I watch the swing states on my TV set.
You can put some money on it, you can place a little bet
That when I see my swing states,
The yellow'll be blue and the red will be blue,
Hey, the nation's gone blue! }